Haverhill Financial Research · Watchlist · October 11, 2026
Why these eight
When people move, they buy homes, paint, faucets, appliances and water heaters, and they renovate the house they are leaving. When they stay put, all of that slows. Housing turnover has been low because many owners are holding mortgages with rates far below today's, so moving means taking on a more expensive loan. These eight companies sell into every stage of a move, and most of their share prices have fallen as they wait.
The watchlist
| Company | 1-yr move | P/E · dividend | Hundred | What would signal a recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
HD Home Depot | -24% | 20.3x Div 3.2% | Not on the list | Larger remodeling projects coming back, not just repairs |
LOW Lowe's | -22% | 15.7x Div 2.7% | Hold #15 | Comparable sales turning positive on more than one quarter |
LEN Lennar | -36% | 14.6x Div 2.6% | Hold #95 | Gross margin: how much it is spending on mortgage buydowns to sell homes |
DHI D.R. Horton | -16% | 12.9x Div 1.3% | Not on the list | Net new orders, and whether incentives are shrinking |
PHM PulteGroup | -12% | 11.4x Div 0.9% | Not on the list | Orders from move-up buyers, who need to sell a home first |
MAS Masco | 0% | 15.9x Div 1.9% | Hold #98 | Paint and plumbing volumes from do-it-yourself customers |
FBIN Fortune Brands | -25% | 31.4x Div 2.7% | Buy #68 | Repair and remodel demand for Moen and its other brands |
AOS A. O. Smith | -21% | 15.7x Div 2.6% | Buy #61 | Replacement water-heater demand versus new-construction orders |
What would change the picture
Good sign: mortgage rates falling and staying lower for a few months, followed by rising pending home sales.
Good sign: homebuilders reporting smaller sales incentives and steadier gross margins, which means buyers are coming without being paid to.
Warning sign: builders cutting prices again to clear finished homes.
Warning sign: home-improvement retailers saying customers are delaying even small repairs.
How this connects to our coverage
Five of the eight are on the Haverhill Hundred: Lowe's (#15, Hold), A. O. Smith (#61, Buy), Fortune Brands (#68, Buy), Lennar (#95, Hold) and Masco (#98, Hold). The Federal Reserve meets October 27 to 28; our Fed Week watchlist covers the other stocks most exposed to rates.
Sources and disclosures
Price moves, P/E ratios and dividend yields are calculated from closing prices and each company's reported results and declared dividends over the last four quarters.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This watchlist is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Inclusion on a watchlist is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The author of this post does not hold positions in the companies named. Data as of October 9, 2026.
