Haverhill Financial Research · Watchlist · October 11, 2026
Why these ten
For most retailers the November-to-January quarter brings in the largest share of the year's profit. Their third-quarter reports, mostly due in mid-to-late November, come with the first holiday outlooks. This list spans the whole spending range, from warehouse clubs and off-price chains to dollar stores, beauty and toys, so it shows which shoppers are spending and which are holding back.
The watchlist
| Company | 1-yr move | P/E | The number to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
WMT Walmart | +8% | 40.4x | How much of its growth comes from higher-income households The trade-down shopper is the swing factor |
COST Costco | +4% | 45.6x | Monthly comparable sales and the membership renewal rate It reports sales every month, so the season shows up early |
AMZN Amazon | +17% | 21.1x | Holiday-quarter guidance for North American retail profit |
TGT Target | +70% | 15.9x Dividend 3.0% | Whether comparable sales stay positive after a big rebound in the shares |
TJX TJX Companies | -1% | 25.7x | Off-price buying: excess inventory at other stores becomes TJX's opportunity |
BBY Best Buy | +13% | 14.5x Dividend 4.4% | Whether a PC and phone replacement cycle lifts comparable sales |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | +1% | 20.8x | Whether beauty spending keeps holding up as other categories slow |
LULU Lululemon | -46% | 7.7x | US comparable sales against fast international growth The cheapest name here |
DG Dollar General | +30% | 16.5x | How lower-income shoppers are holding up On the Hundred at #80, rated Buy |
HAS Hasbro | +23% | 16.7x Dividend 3.0% | Toy demand and pricing, plus how much Magic: The Gathering adds On the Hundred at #86, rated Buy |
What would change the mood
Good sign: dollar stores and Walmart growing without heavy discounting, which would mean lower-income households are steadier than feared.
Good sign: Costco's monthly sales holding their pace through November and December.
Warning sign: several retailers cutting holiday outlooks at once, or talking about promotions to clear inventory.
Warning sign: discretionary categories such as apparel and electronics slowing while groceries hold, which usually means shoppers are trading down.
How this connects to our coverage
Dollar General (#80, Buy), Hasbro (#86, Buy), Nike (#50, Buy), Deckers (#83, Buy) and Tractor Supply (#9, Hold) are on the Haverhill Hundred. Amazon (#57, Hold) is there too, and Costco is in our free Haverhill Core portfolio.
Sources and disclosures
Price moves and P/E ratios are calculated from closing prices and each company's reported results over the last four quarters. Report timing is approximate until each company confirms its date.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This watchlist is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Inclusion on a watchlist is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Report dates described as approximate are Haverhill estimates. The author of this post does not hold positions in the companies named. Data as of October 9, 2026.
