Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $84 (12 months)
Uber is still growing bookings above 20% a year, profit is rising faster, and it now generates more than $10 billion of free cash flow a year. Self-driving cars are the big question, and so far they are running on Uber's network: it has more than 30 AV partners and is live in 7 cities. At $71.51 the stock trades at about 17 times our 2027 earnings estimate, and our 12-month price target of $84 (through October 2027) sits about 17% above the current price, so we rate the shares Buy.
Uber filings through the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of NYSE close Oct 9, 2026
Growth is holding above 20%. Gross bookings rose 22% in constant currency to $58.0 billion in Q2 2026, and Uber guides to 18% to 22% growth for Q3.
Robotaxis are running on Uber, for now. Uber has more than 30 AV partners, is live in 7 cities and plans about $10 billion of AV investment over several years. AV trips are still under 0.5% of the total.
Our view: at about 14 times trailing free cash flow the stock prices in little growth. The risks are robotaxi owners selling rides on their own apps, and a $14.8 billion Delivery Hero deal that has slowed buybacks.
Investment thesis in brief
Our thesis: Uber is growing bookings above 20% a year and turning that into more than $10 billion of annual free cash, and so far self-driving cars are showing up as extra supply on its network.
What we like. Trips grew 18% in Q2 2026 to 3.87 billion, and monthly active platform consumers (people who used Uber at least once in a month) rose 16% to 208 million. Non-GAAP operating income, the profit measure management now steers by, rose 40% to $2.14 billion.
What the market may be missing. In Austin and Atlanta, the two US cities where Waymo cars run on Uber, management said in May that driver earnings were up and more drivers were joining. CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy said AV partners have raised $2.50 from other investors for every $1 Uber has put in, so others carry most of the cost of fleets that run on Uber's app.
What holds us back. Uber's 10-K warns that AV owners may put their cars on other platforms and that AVs could let competitors charge much less. Uber also agreed in July to buy Delivery Hero for $14.8 billion in cash, partly with new debt, and buybacks fell to $518 million in Q2 from $3.0 billion in Q1.
How does the business actually make money?
Uber takes a cut of each ride, meal or freight load booked through its apps. Gross bookings, the total customers pay, were $58.0 billion in Q2 2026; revenue, what Uber keeps, was $14.2 billion.
Mobility (rides) booked $29.0 billion in Q2, up 20% in constant currency, and earned $2.22 billion of segment operating income, a 7.6% margin on bookings. Delivery (restaurants, grocery and retail) booked $27.5 billion, up 25%, and earned $1.06 billion, up 38%, about 3.8% of bookings. Freight booked $1.6 billion and lost $24 million.
Why revenue lags bookings. Revenue grew 12% against 24% reported bookings growth. Uber says business model changes in some markets cut revenue growth by 8 points. The CFO called a UK change, which explains most of the drop in the Mobility take rate (the share of bookings recorded as revenue), optical, since costs fall at the same time. Operating income is the better guide.
Where AVs fit. Uber does not build self-driving cars. It signs up the companies that do: Waymo, Zoox, Nuro with Lucid, Baidu, Pony, Wayve and NVIDIA in rides, and Serve, Cartken and Flytrex in delivery. Uber says it has more than 30 AV partners, is live in 7 cities and expects 15 by year-end. AV trips run at "hundreds of thousands" a week, under 0.5% of roughly 300 million weekly trips. Uber plans about $10 billion of AV investment over several years, mostly equity in AV software partners plus some fleet support, and cites about 120,000 vehicle commitments over the next few years.
What do the numbers say?
Bookings growth has stayed above 20% for four straight quarters, and profit is growing faster still. Free cash flow is the weak line, up 7% in the first half of 2026.
Exhibit 1: Gross bookings have grown above 20% a year for four straight quarters
Three things investors should know.
Growth is holding up. Q3 guidance calls for $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion of bookings, up 18% to 22% in constant currency, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.84 to $0.88, up 28% to 35%. Management points to less dense markets, where under 10% of eligible US consumers used Uber in the past year.
Margins keep widening. Non-GAAP operating income was 3.7% of bookings in Q2, up from 3.3% a year earlier.
Cash is large but growing slowly. Free cash flow was $2.79 billion in Q2, up 13%, and $10.1 billion over the last four quarters (Haverhill sum of reported quarters).
Buybacks and the balance sheet. Uber spent $6.5 billion on buybacks in 2025 and $3.5 billion in the first half of 2026, but only $518 million in Q2, when it put about $4 billion into Delivery Hero shares. Buybacks over the last four quarters were $6.9 billion, about 68% of free cash flow (Haverhill calculation), above the roughly 50% the CFO calls the historical target. He said buybacks will rebuild over "months, not quarters." At June 30 Uber held $5.4 billion of cash and short-term investments against $12.7 billion of debt, plus stakes in Grab, Didi and Aurora worth $5.7 billion.
Check the figures: Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · Q4 2025 results · Q3 2025 results · Q2 2026 Form 10-Q
Competition and moat
Uber's edge is demand. With 208 million monthly users and 3.87 billion trips a quarter across rides and delivery, any car, with or without a driver, earns more where riders are already waiting.
The AV question. The bear view is that robotaxi owners will sell rides on their own apps. Uber's 10-K names Waymo, Tesla and Zoox as AV developers and says Waymo already runs a commercial fleet on its own platform. Uber's answer is utilization: AVs on its network run mid-to-high 20s to low 30s trips per vehicle per day, which management says is above what owners get on their own networks. Management said Uber's position in San Francisco and Los Angeles, where Waymo runs its own service, is stronger than a year ago.
Where the moat is thin. Uber works with Waymo only in Austin and Atlanta, and management said it wants to avoid depending on any one partner. In Brazil, DiDi Food and Meituan are bidding for two-wheeler couriers, which softened Mobility trips there in Q2.
What is it worth?
We value Uber at $84 per share over the next 12 months (to October 2027), a probability-weighted blend of three scenarios. That is about 17% above the $71.51 close, which supports a Buy.
Our method. Uber now reports and guides to non-GAAP EPS, so we value it on earnings:
Estimate 2026 non-GAAP EPS at about $3.32: $0.72 in Q1 and $0.81 in Q2 as reported, the $0.86 midpoint of Q3 guidance and our own $0.93 for Q4.
Grow that to $4.10 in 2027 in our base case, about 24%, below the 28% to 35% guided for Q3, to allow for AV spending and interest on Delivery Hero debt. We include no Delivery Hero profit, since closing is expected in the second half of 2027.
Apply the price-to-earnings multiple we expect investors to pay in October 2027, when they will be looking at 2028.
Weight the cases 25% bear, 50% base and 25% bull.
Why these numbers. Our base multiple of 21x equals about 17 times 2028 earnings if growth holds near 24%. The bear multiple of 15x assumes investors decide AVs will squeeze ride margins; the bull 25x assumes AV trips scale on Uber with margins intact.
What the price implies. At $71.51 the stock trades at 21.5 times our 2026 estimate and 17.4 times our 2027 estimate. At 21x, the price implies 2027 EPS of about $3.41, barely above this year. On cash, the $146 billion market value is about 14.4 times trailing free cash flow, a 6.9% yield (Haverhill calculations).
What are the real risks?
AV owners go direct. If robotaxi fleets scale on their own apps in Uber's biggest cities, Uber loses rides that earn 7.6% of bookings, twice Delivery's margin.
AV costs climb. Uber has sized a roughly $10 billion plan and about 120,000 vehicle commitments but not yet the profit impact. If partners cannot raise money, more fleet cost lands on Uber.
Delivery Hero strains capital. The €41.50-per-share offer is backed by a roughly €14 billion bridge loan, needs regulatory clearance and is not expected to close until the second half of 2027, with systems migration in 2029. Buybacks have already slowed.
Cash flow keeps lagging profit. First-half free cash flow grew 7% against 41% for operating income.
AV safety and regulation. Uber's 10-K notes that AV collisions, including fatal ones, have happened. A serious incident on its network could slow city approvals.
What would change our mind?
Signals that would move us to Hold or Sell
Constant-currency bookings growth below 15% for two quarters in a row.
Mobility segment operating income down year over year in any quarter.
Buybacks still below $1 billion a quarter by mid-2027.
Fewer than 15 AV cities live at year-end, or Uber losing a major AV partner in an existing city.
The price running past about $97 with no change in our earnings view.
Signals that would make us more bullish
AV trips above 1% of total trips with the Mobility margin at or above 7.5%.
Trailing free cash flow above $12 billion.
A 2027 outlook pointing to non-GAAP EPS growth above 30%.
Catalysts to watch
Q3 2026 results, early November. Date not yet set (Q3 2025 was reported November 4). Guidance: $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion of bookings and $0.84 to $0.88 of non-GAAP EPS.
AV launches through year-end. Nuro and Lucid in the Bay Area, Zoox in Las Vegas, Wayve in London and Tokyo, Baidu in London, and Pony and Verne in Zagreb, toward 15 cities.
Delivery Hero offer steps. BaFin approval of the offer document and merger clearances; closing expected in the second half of 2027.
NVIDIA-based launches in Los Angeles and San Francisco, planned for 2027.
Sources and disclosures
Every company figure in this report comes from Uber's own filings and releases, linked below. The analysis, model and price target are Haverhill Financial Research's own work.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This report is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Price targets are estimates of value, not guarantees. Haverhill ratings follow our published bands: Buy when our 12-month target is at least 15% above the price, Sell when it is at least 15% below, Hold in between. The author of this post does not hold a position in UBER. Data as of October 9, 2026.
