Haverhill Financial Research · News · Earnings preview · October 15, 2026
The short version
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports third-quarter results today, with its conference call at 2:00 p.m. Taiwan time, which is 2:00 a.m. Eastern. Revenue isn't much of a mystery, because TSMC publishes sales every month. July, August and September add up to NT$1,494 billion, about 18% more than the second quarter and roughly 2% above the top of the forecast TSMC gave in July. The questions that matter are margins, the fourth-quarter outlook and spending.
What TSMC told us to expect
| Measure | Guidance | Tracking |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, US dollarsAt NT$32 per dollar | $44.6–45.8B | About $46.7B |
| Revenue, NT dollarsSum of monthly reports | NT$1,427–1,466B | NT$1,494B |
| Gross marginQ2 was 67.7% | 65–67% | Reported today |
| Operating marginQ2 was 60.3% | 56–58% | Reported today |
| Full-year revenue growthIn US dollars | Slightly above 40% | — |
| 2026 capital spendingRaised from $52–56B in January | $60–64B | — |
Quarterly revenue in NT dollars, with July's guidance range. Source: TSMC earnings release and monthly revenue reports.
Month by month
Sales were NT$467.6 billion in July, NT$514.8 billion in August and NT$511.9 billion in September, up 45%, 53% and 55% from the same months last year. Through September, TSMC's revenue is up 41% for the year, in line with its full-year goal.
What we will be watching
Gross margin. TSMC warned that the fast ramp of its 2-nanometer process would dilute gross margin by about 3 to 4 points in the second half, and that new overseas fabs cost another 2 to 3 points early on. Higher volume may offset some of that.
The fourth-quarter forecast. After a beat this large, the guide will show whether demand from AI chip customers is still accelerating.
Capital spending. TSMC raised its 2026 budget to $60 to $64 billion in July. Any early word on 2027 will matter for the whole chip supply chain.
Where revenue came from. In the second quarter, high-performance computing was 66% of revenue and 3-nanometer chips were 30% of wafer revenue.
Our take
The monthly numbers already tell us TSMC had a strong quarter. What we want from today's report is evidence that the margin pressure from 2-nanometer and overseas fabs is manageable, and a fourth-quarter outlook that keeps the growth rate high.
Sources and disclosures
Figures come from TSMC's own releases: the second-quarter 2026 earnings release with guidance, monthly revenue reports for July, August and September, and the investor relations calendar for timing. The implied Q3 total and US dollar conversion are our calculations.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in TSMC or the other companies named. Data as of October 15, 2026.
