Haverhill Financial Research · News · Economy · October 24, 2026
What's coming
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP on Thursday morning, October 29, with economists looking for growth around 3% annualized. The same morning brings September PCE inflation, the measure the Fed actually targets. The sequencing is awkward by design of the calendar, not the Fed: the committee will have decided on rates Wednesday afternoon using August PCE, which ran 3.4% overall and 3.0% core.
The economy the data will describe
The private surveys have already sketched it. October's flash PMI showed a composite of 57.6, comfortably in expansion, with manufacturing at a 53-month high and new orders at their strongest since March 2022. The prices-charged index reached its highest level since August 2022, which is not what a central bank wants to see six weeks after it started raising rates again.
The flash PMI, published Friday. Everything above 50 is growth.
Households tell a different story. Consumer sentiment finished October at 48.0, a level normally associated with recessions, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. Hiring has slowed to a crawl, with September payrolls up 29,000. Strong output, weak mood, sticky prices: the mix is uncomfortable precisely because no single policy answers all three.
| Measure | Latest | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation | August | 3.4% |
| Core CPI | August | 2.4% |
| PCE inflation | August | 3.4% |
| Core PCE | August | 3.0% |
| Payroll growth | September | +29,000 |
| Consumer sentiment | October, final | 48.0 |
| One-year inflation expectationsUniversity of Michigan | October, final | 4.7% |
Why markets care
Growth near 3% with core inflation near 3% is the combination that keeps a December rate increase alive, and Treasuries have been rallying for three weeks partly as a hiding place from the AI selloff rather than on soft data. A GDP print with a 2-handle or below would revive the case that September's hike was the last. We would also look inside the report at business fixed investment, where the data-center buildout has become big enough to show up in national accounts. The AI capital cycle we cover company by company is now, quietly, a macro line item.
Sources and disclosures
Release timing is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis statistical calendar. Survey data are from S&P Global’s flash US PMI and the University of Michigan consumer survey, both published October 23. Inflation and payroll figures are from the BEA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 3% growth figure is the consensus expectation economists carried into the week, not ours.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in any company named. Data as of October 24, 2026.
