Haverhill Financial Research · News · The Fed · October 24, 2026
What's happening
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision due Wednesday afternoon, October 28, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The target range sits at 3.75% to 4.00% after the September 16 increase, the Fed's first since July 2023 and a unanimous one. Before that, the committee had been on hold for nine months following a cut last December.
Futures markets ended the week pricing roughly a 92% chance the Fed stays put. Nobody serious expects a move Wednesday. The meeting matters anyway, because the statement and the press conference will shape December, where another quarter-point increase has been mostly priced in for weeks.
The rate path, and where December would take it.
The awkward part: oil
December crude settled Friday at $103.58, up 4.13% on the day, and Brent traded above $116, its highest since April, as the confrontation with Iran escalated again. Energy is exactly the kind of price the Fed says it looks through. Warsh made the point in September: the central bank cannot affect any individual price. The concern is what economists call second-round effects, when fuel costs seep into everything else and into expectations.
That seepage is the live question. The University of Michigan's final October survey put one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% and five-year expectations at 3.5%, both moving the wrong way. The October flash PMI's prices-charged index hit its highest level since August 2022. Set against that, the labor market has clearly cooled, with September payrolls up just 29,000. The committee is being pulled in both directions at once.
| Measure | Level |
|---|---|
| Federal funds target range | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Last move | +0.25 points on Sept 16, 12-0 |
| Market odds of a holdFutures pricing, Friday | About 92% |
| CPI inflation, August | 3.4% |
| Core PCE inflation, August | 3.0% |
| One-year inflation expectationsUniversity of Michigan, final October | 4.7% |
| WTI crude, December contract | $103.58 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.99% |
What we'd watch Wednesday
Dissents. September was unanimous. A vote for a hike would all but lock December; a vote for a cut would be a genuine surprise.
The energy language. Whether the statement treats oil as noise or names it as a risk to expectations tells you how the committee is reading $100 crude.
Warsh on December. The dot plot from September implies one more increase this year. If he declines to push back on market pricing, that is the signal.
The collision with everything else. Microsoft and Alphabet report the same afternoon, and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP plus September PCE land the next morning. Wednesday is the hinge of the whole week.
Sources and disclosures
Meeting dates are from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar. Rate levels and vote counts are from Federal Reserve statements; inflation readings are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis; expectations are from the University of Michigan surveys. Market prices and futures-implied odds are as of the October 23 close and will move.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in any company named. Data as of October 24, 2026.
