Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $161 (12 months)
Strategy owns 848,250 bitcoin, but common shareholders stand behind about $20.5 billion of convertible notes and preferred stock. Net of a $5.5 billion cash reserve, those claims use up about 182,000 of the bitcoin at the October 9 price of $82,624, leaving roughly $130 of bitcoin value per share against a $154.34 share price. Our 12-month price target of $161 (through October 2027) blends bitcoin at $55,000, $90,000 and $130,000 and sits about 4% above the current price, so we rate the shares Hold.
Strategy filings through the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and weekly 8-Ks to Oct 12, 2026; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of Nasdaq close Oct 9, 2026; bitcoin $82,624 (Oct 9, 2026 close)
The bitcoin is real, and so are the claims. $6.75 billion of debt and about $13.8 billion of preferred stock rank ahead of the common. After cash, they absorb about 21% of the bitcoin at today's price.
Dilution changed character in Q3. Basic shares rose 14% in the quarter while bitcoin holdings barely moved, because new stock money went into a cash reserve and preferred buybacks.
Our view: at 1.18 times net asset value, the stock is a geared bitcoin position bought at a modest premium. Our probability-weighted value lands close to today's price.
