Haverhill Financial Research · News · Space · October 24, 2026
What's happening
SpaceX listed on June 12 with only about 5% of its shares floating, and its IPO lockup was built to open in stages rather than on one cliff. Most of those stages have now passed: an initial release after the second-quarter call, then a series of smaller time-based tranches through late October. The big one comes next. Under the lockup terms in the IPO prospectus, the third-quarter earnings call, held this past week, releases the largest slice yet of the early-release pool, up to roughly 28% of it by our reading. The remaining restrictions end around December 9, when most pre-IPO shares, including Elon Musk's, come free.
The supply schedule, approximately. Exact share counts live in the prospectus.
Why it matters
The float is still thin, so supply arriving matters more here than it would for a seasoned stock. The market has already been trading the anticipation: shares reversed from a 7% gain to a 9% loss after third-quarter results that were, on the numbers, excellent. Revenue nearly tripled to $14.6 billion, the AI computing segment outgrew Starlink, and the company posted its first profitable quarter since listing. We covered the results in detail here.
There is also a second supply question hovering: Tesla and SpaceX have each formed committees to study a possible combination. Any stock-based deal would be its own form of issuance. Until terms exist, that is a question rather than a risk, but it shares the stage with the unlock.
| Window | What releases |
|---|---|
| June 12 | Listing; about 5% of shares float |
| After the Q2 call, July | First 20% of the early-release pool |
| Aug 21 to Oct 25 | Five tranches of about 7% each |
| After the Q3 callThis past week | Up to about 28% more |
| About Dec 9 | Everything else, including Musk’s stake |
What we'd watch
Volume this week. Releasable is not the same as sold. Heavy volume without much price damage would say demand is absorbing the supply, which is the bullish read of an unlock.
Insider sale filings. Early holders selling into the release is normal. Executives selling ahead of a possible stock-based merger would be stranger, and worth noting.
December 9. The final unlock is the larger event. How this week trades is the market’s rehearsal for it.
Sources and disclosures
The lockup structure is set out in SpaceX’s IPO prospectus filed with the SEC; our percentages and dates are approximations of those terms. Third-quarter figures are from SpaceX’s Q3 2026 results filed with the SEC, covered in our linked article. Price moves are from last week’s trading.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in SpaceX or the other companies named. Data as of October 24, 2026.
