Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $17 (12 months)
SoFi is adding members at 35% a year and now holds $45.5 billion of deposits, which lets it fund its own loans cheaply. Profit is rising, but most revenue still depends on lending, and the share count grew about 16% in a year after two stock sales. At $15.80 the stock trades at about 26 times SoFi's guided 2026 adjusted earnings and 2.2 times tangible book value. Our 12-month price target of $17 (through October 2027) sits about 8% above the current price, so we rate the shares Hold.
SoFi filings through the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of Nasdaq close Oct 9, 2026
The growth is real. Members rose 35% to 15.8 million in Q2 2026 and deposits grew $5.3 billion in the quarter to $45.5 billion.
Lending still pays the bills. About 72% of fee-based revenue is tied to loans, and SoFi says its 2.62% personal loan charge-off rate would be about 3.7% without late-stage loan sales.
Our view: the business is getting stronger, but at 26 times guided 2026 earnings the price already assumes a steep second-half profit ramp. We would turn buyers below about $14.75.
Investment thesis in brief
Our thesis: SoFi has built a fast-growing consumer bank that funds its own loans with cheap deposits, but the earnings it produces today do not yet justify paying much more than the current price.
What we like. Members rose 35% in a year to 15.8 million, and SoFi added a record 2.2 million products in Q2 2026. Deposits reached $45.5 billion, up $5.3 billion in the quarter alone. Because SoFi holds a national bank charter, those deposits fund its loans at a lower cost than borrowed warehouse lines, which shows up in a 5.98% net interest margin (the gap between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits).
What the market may be missing. Capital is no longer the constraint. SoFi raised about $3 billion by selling stock in July and December 2025, at $20.85 and $27.50 a share, well above today's $15.80. Its estimated common equity tier 1 ratio, the main bank capital measure, was 18.7% at June 30, 2026, enough to keep growing loans without another stock sale.
What holds us back. Lending still produces most of the money, and the 2026 guidance needs a steep second-half step up in profit. The stock also trades at about 26 times SoFi's own guided 2026 adjusted earnings of about $0.60 a share, with a return on tangible equity of about 6.6% on Q2 earnings (Haverhill calculation).
How does the business actually make money?
SoFi reports three segments. In Q2 2026, Lending produced $711.7 million of adjusted net revenue, Financial Services $466.3 million and Technology Platform $84.5 million, with corporate costs and funding netting about $57 million off the total.
Lending. SoFi makes personal, student and home loans. Originations were $14.8 billion in Q2 2026, up 69%, led by $10.7 billion of personal loans. It keeps many loans for the interest and sells others. Its Loan Platform Business also originates personal loans for outside investors for a fee: $3.1 billion in Q2, adding $143.3 million of revenue. Lending's contribution profit was $399.0 million, a 56% adjusted margin.
Financial Services. This is the bank account, investing, credit card and subscription side. It earned $249.1 million of net interest income, mostly on member deposits, plus $217.2 million of fees, both up 28% to 29%. Contribution profit rose 13% to $212.7 million, a slower pace than revenue as the margin slipped from 52% to 46%.
Technology Platform. Galileo runs accounts and payments for other fintechs and banks. Revenue fell 23% to $84.5 million after a large client left before December 31, 2025.
How much is really fee-based. SoFi reported $472.3 million of fee-based revenue, 39% of the total. But $339.4 million of that came from loan origination fees and Loan Platform Business fees (Haverhill calculation), so about 72% of the fee line still depends on lending volumes. Fees unrelated to loans, such as interchange, brokerage and technology services, were about $133 million, roughly 11% of revenue.
What do the numbers say?
Total net revenue rose 43% to $1.22 billion in Q2 2026, and adjusted net revenue rose 40% to $1.21 billion. GAAP net income was $156.6 million, up 61%, or $0.12 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for items such as stock pay) was $357.8 million, a 30% margin.
Exhibit 1: adjusted net revenue rose 40% in a year to $1.21 billion
Three things investors should know.
Profit dipped from Q1 even as revenue grew. Net income fell from $166.7 million in Q1 2026 to $156.6 million, mainly because tax expense rose to $47.7 million. Pre-tax income was little changed at $204.3 million.
Reported credit looks better than the underlying trend. The personal loan net charge-off rate (loans written off, net of recoveries, annualized) fell to 2.62% from 3.03% in Q1. SoFi says it would have been about 3.7% without sales of late-stage delinquent loans. Student loans charged off 0.61%.
Book value leans on fair-value marks. SoFi carries most loans at fair value. At June 30, 2026 it valued its $44.3 billion loan book $2.03 billion above unpaid principal, equal to about 21% of its $9.47 billion tangible book value (Haverhill calculation). Its assumed personal loan default rate rose to 4.77% from 4.57% in Q1.
Dilution. Shares outstanding rose from 1.113 billion at June 30, 2025 to 1.290 billion a year later, an increase of about 16%. The two 2025 stock sales added 126.5 million shares; most of the rest came from vesting employee stock awards. Stock-based pay was $96.8 million in Q2 2026, about 8% of revenue. Tangible book value per share still rose 56% to $7.34, helped by the stock sales.
Competition and moat
SoFi competes with large banks for deposits and cards, with Upstart and LendingClub in personal loans, with Robinhood in investing and with Chime in digital banking. Its pitch is one app for all of them, and its members held 1.54 products each at June 30, 2026.
Where the moat is real. Few fintechs hold a bank charter, and SoFi's lets it fund $45.5 billion of loans with deposits instead of market borrowing. The student loan business, with originations up 170% to $2.7 billion in Q2, gives it early access to high-earning graduates who later borrow for homes.
Where it is thin. Personal loans are sold mostly on rate, and many depositors chase the highest savings yield. Technology Platform accounts fell 16% in a year to 134.8 million.
What is it worth?
We value SoFi at $17 per share over the next 12 months (to October 2027), a probability-weighted blend of three scenarios. That is about 8% above today's price, which supports a Hold.
Our method. SoFi is profitable and growing, so we value it on earnings and check the result against tangible book value. We forecast 2027 adjusted net revenue, apply a net income margin, divide by about 1.38 billion diluted shares (our estimate, allowing for continued stock pay) and apply the price-to-earnings multiple we think investors will pay in October 2027. We weight the cases 25% bear, 50% base and 25% bull.
Why these numbers. Our base case has 2027 adjusted net revenue of $5.9 billion, about 23% growth on the midpoint of SoFi's raised 2026 range of $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion. We keep the 17% net margin SoFi guides for 2026, giving about $1.0 billion of net income and $0.72 a share. A 24 times multiple sits below today's 26 times 2026 guidance, since growth slows, but above a typical bank because revenue still grows above 20%. That value works out to a little over 2 times our estimate of end-2027 tangible book.
What the price implies. At $15.80, SoFi's equity is worth about $20.4 billion. That is about 22 times our base-case 2027 earnings, so the market is already paying for most of the growth we expect. Each turn of the multiple is worth about $0.72 a share.
What are the real risks?
Personal loan credit worsens. Personal loans are $26.1 billion of unpaid principal, carried about 4.7% above par. Higher defaults would cut both earnings and the fair-value marks in book value.
The second half falls short. SoFi earned $323.3 million of GAAP net income in the first half. Its roughly $825 million adjusted net income goal implies about $500 million in the second half (Haverhill calculation), a sharp step up.
Loan buyers pull back. SoFi held $29.7 billion of loans for sale at June 30, 2026, up from $22.9 billion at year end. If investors buy fewer loans, more stay on the balance sheet and fee income from the Loan Platform Business falls.
Dilution continues. Stock pay of about $97 million a quarter adds shares every year, and SoFi has shown it will sell stock to fund growth.
Deposit pricing. Competition for savings balances could squeeze the 5.98% net interest margin.
What would change our mind?
Signals that would move us to Sell
The all-in personal loan charge-off rate, about 3.7% in Q2, rising above 4.5%.
SoFi cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook below $0.55.
Deposits flat or down from one quarter to the next.
The price rising above about $20 with no change in our earnings view.
Signals that would move us to Buy
Quarterly adjusted net income above $220 million, showing the second-half ramp is real.
Fees unrelated to loans growing above $175 million a quarter, from about $133 million in Q2.
The price falling below about $14.75 with our view unchanged.
Catalysts to watch
October 27, 2026: Q3 2026 results at about 7 a.m. Eastern, with the call at 8 a.m. The test is whether net income starts the second-half ramp.
Q4 2026 results (date not yet announced): SoFi's first 2027 outlook and an update on member growth against its target of at least 30% for 2026.
Sources and disclosures
Every company figure in this report comes from SoFi Technologies's own filings and releases, linked below. The analysis, model and price target are Haverhill Financial Research's own work.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This report is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Price targets are estimates of value, not guarantees. Haverhill ratings follow our published bands: Buy when our 12-month target is at least 15% above the price, Sell when it is at least 15% below, Hold in between. The author of this post does not hold a position in SOFI. Data as of October 9, 2026.
