Haverhill Financial Research · News · October 11, 2026
The short version
Third-quarter earnings season starts on Tuesday, October 13, when JPMorganChase releases results at about 7:00 a.m. ET. By Wednesday morning, six of the largest US banks will have reported. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings 29.5% from a year earlier, according to FactSet. That would be the third straight quarter above 25%.
Expectations rose into the season. Analysts raised their Q3 earnings estimates by 1.4% between June 30 and September 30. Over the past five years, estimates have fallen by an average of 2.2% over a quarter.
Company guidance leaned positive. Of the 116 S&P 500 companies that gave Q3 earnings guidance, 72 guided above what analysts expected. The five-year average is 42.
Valuations are not stretched against history. The index trades at 19.0 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, below its five-year average of 19.8.
The calendar
What we will be watching
The health of the US consumer. Card delinquencies and charge-offs at JPMorganChase, Citigroup and Bank of America are the cleanest early read on household finances. That matters for everything from restaurant chains to retail brokers.
Whether deal-making is back. Investment-banking fees at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will show whether mergers and stock sales have picked up. Stifel Financial (#88 on the Haverhill Hundred) is on our list largely because we expect that recovery.
What banks say about interest income. Guidance for net interest income, the gap between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits, shows how they expect interest rates to move from here.
ASML's order book. ASML makes the machines used to print the most advanced chips. Its orders are an early signal for AI chip spending, which feeds our views on Broadcom, Nebius Group and Applied Materials (#58 on the Hundred).
Domino's US sales. We rate Domino's (#52 on the Hundred) a Hold because US sales growth has slowed. A clear reacceleration would make us take another look.
Our take
When estimates rise going into a season, the bar for an upside surprise is higher than usual. We expect the bigger market reaction to come from guidance for the fourth quarter and 2027 rather than from whether companies beat this quarter's numbers. The banks set the tone, because they see the consumer, corporate borrowing and the capital markets all at once.
What comes next. Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, the top three names on the Haverhill Hundred, report later this month. We will publish a preview before they do.
Sources and disclosures
Other report dates are from company announcements and may change. Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. The author of this post does not hold positions in the companies named. Data as of October 11, 2026.
