Haverhill Financial Research · News · Earnings preview · October 15, 2026
The short version
PNC Financial Services reports third-quarter results at about 6:30 a.m. Eastern today, with a call at 10:00 a.m. It is the first full quarter since PNC moved FirstBank's roughly 780,000 customers and 95 Colorado and Arizona branches onto its systems in June. In July, management guided to slightly higher loans and lending income, lower fee income and lower adjusted expenses.
What PNC told us to expect
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q3 guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Average loans | $363.2B | Up 1% to 2% |
| Net interest income | $4.11B | Up 3% to 3.5% |
| Fee incomeNon-GAAP | $2.28B | Down 5% to 5.5% |
| Other noninterest income | $489M | $150M to $200M |
| Noninterest expenseAdjusted, excludes ~$50M integration costs | $3.84B | Down 2% to 3% |
| Net charge-offs | $226M | About $225M |
| Share buybacks | About $0.6B | About the same |
Guided change from the second quarter, low and high end. Source: PNC second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation.
Where the second quarter left off
PNC earned $2.06 billion in the second quarter, or $4.81 a share, and $4.85 on an adjusted basis. Revenue was a record $6.88 billion and the net interest margin was 2.96%. The quarter had several one-off items, including the Visa gain, a $140 million foundation contribution and $127 million of FirstBank integration costs, which roughly cancelled out. PNC also raised its quarterly dividend 18% to $2.00 a share.
The full-year picture
For 2026, PNC expects average loans up about 12.5%, net interest income up 15% to 15.5% and adjusted revenue up about 13%, with adjusted expenses up about 8.5%. Most of that growth comes from adding FirstBank. Its economic assumptions include the Fed holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% through 2026 and inflation staying above 3%.
What we will be watching
Lending income. Hitting the 3% to 3.5% guide would put net interest income around $4.23 to $4.25 billion.
Costs after the conversion. With the systems work done, expenses should start to come down. That is where merger savings show up.
Capital. The common equity tier 1 ratio was an estimated 9.9% in June, down from 10.1%. Buybacks of about $600 million a quarter depend on it holding up.
Our take
PNC's guidance sets a fairly low bar for fee income and a clear one for expenses. The quarter will mostly be judged on whether FirstBank is starting to pay for itself.
Sources and disclosures
Figures come from PNC's own materials: the second-quarter 2026 earnings release, the earnings presentation and its conference call announcement. The implied dollar range for net interest income is our calculation.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in PNC or the other companies named. Data as of October 15, 2026.
