Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $42 (12 months)
Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of Ozempic and Wegovy, is selling more obesity medicine again: adjusted sales rose 7% at constant currency in the second quarter, and the new Wegovy pill passed 265,000 US prescriptions a week. The catch is price: Novo cuts US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic in January 2027 and faces generic semaglutide in some markets, so we expect 2027 earnings to be roughly flat. At $38.64 per ADR the stock trades at about 11 times our 2026 earnings estimate, and our 12-month price target of $42 is about 9% above the current price, so we rate the shares Hold.
Novo Nordisk filings through the H1 2026 financial report; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of NYSE close Oct 9, 2026; DKK converted at 6.69 per USD
The pill is real. Wegovy pill sold DKK 3.2 billion in Q2 2026, its second quarter on the market, and total obesity care sales grew 16% at constant currency.
Guidance went up, from a low base. Novo now expects 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit to change by 0% to -6% at constant currency, up from -4% to -12% in May.
Our view: the shares are cheap on today's earnings, but US price cuts and generic semaglutide abroad keep 2027 flat in our base case. We want proof of growth before paying more.
Investment thesis in brief
Our thesis: Novo has stopped the bleeding in obesity, but the next leg of value depends on whether pill volume and new launches can outrun a deliberate reset of US prices.
What we like. Novo launched the Wegovy pill in the US on January 5, 2026, and says it has been prescribed more than 5 million times since. Weekly prescriptions passed 265,000 in the week to July 17. Novo also says the Wegovy franchise still leads branded US obesity medicines by new patient starts. Outside the US, obesity care sales rose 37% at constant currency in Q2.
What the market may be missing. The company is throwing off cash while it reshapes. Free cash flow was DKK 55.3 billion in the first half of 2026 and the 2025 dividend totalled DKK 11.70 per share, a yield of about 4.5% at today's price (Haverhill calculation). Novo has also bought back 36.6 million shares since February.
What holds us back. From January 1, 2027, Novo will lower the US list price of Wegovy and Ozempic to $675 a month, cuts of roughly 50% and 35%. Realised prices are already falling: US obesity sales grew only 4% in Q2 even though volumes rose across the Wegovy range.
How does the business actually make money?
Novo sells medicines for diabetes and obesity, almost all of them based on its own molecules. Of DKK 148.6 billion in adjusted first-half 2026 sales, GLP-1 diabetes drugs (Ozempic and Ozempic pill/Rybelsus) were 46.8%, obesity care (Wegovy and Saxenda) 29.7%, insulin 16.6% and rare disease 6.1% (Haverhill calculation from company figures). GLP-1 drugs mimic a gut hormone that controls blood sugar and appetite; semaglutide is the molecule in both Ozempic and Wegovy.
Who pays. The US was 51% of adjusted first-half sales and the rest of the world 49%. US buyers are insurers, government programmes and cash-paying patients; Novo's "Most Favoured Nations" deal with the US government widens access through Medicare Part D, Medicaid and self-pay, at lower prices.
A note on the numbers. Novo reports in Danish kroner (DKK), and one NYSE-listed ADR represents one B share (Novo reports earnings "per share/ADR" at a single figure). We convert at 6.69 DKK per US dollar, so the $38.64 ADR close equals about DKK 258 per share. Novo's "adjusted" figures strip out a one-off DKK 26.8 billion reversal of US 340B rebate provisions booked in Q1 2026 (a non-cash release tied to a federal drug discount programme) and DKK 6.3 billion of Q2 pipeline write-downs. We use adjusted figures throughout.
What do the numbers say?
Second-quarter adjusted sales were DKK 78.5 billion (about $11.7 billion), up 7% at constant currency, and adjusted operating profit rose 11% to DKK 33.4 billion. That followed a 2% decline in Q4 2025 and a soft Q1 2026.
Exhibit 1: after a weak first quarter, sales returned to growth in Q2 2026
Three things investors should know.
Obesity grew, diabetes held. Obesity care sales rose 16% at constant currency to DKK 23.2 billion. Wegovy injections grew only 1% to DKK 19.5 billion, so the pill did most of the work. Ozempic grew 5% to DKK 31.4 billion.
Margins are lower than they were. Adjusted gross margin fell to 78.2% from 82.7% a year earlier, on lower realised prices, currency and about DKK 3 billion of one-time costs to right-size manufacturing capacity. Adjusted operating margin was still 42.5%, helped by a 13% drop in sales and distribution costs.
Restructuring is paying for itself. In September 2025 Novo cut about 9,000 of 78,400 positions, at a one-off cost of about DKK 8 billion, and targeted about DKK 8 billion of annual savings by the end of 2026. Full-time staff fell 10% in 2025.
Guidance and cash. Novo now expects 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit growth of 0% to -6% at constant currency, with reported DKK growth about 1 and 2 points lower. It expects DKK 45 to 55 billion of free cash flow and about DKK 55 billion of capital spending. After DKK 55.3 billion in the first half, that implies little or no free cash in the second (Haverhill reading).
Competition and moat
Novo's edge is manufacturing scale and a head start in oral GLP-1s; its weakness is an aging molecule.
Who it competes with. Eli Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) is the main rival in both diabetes and obesity. Novo's own trial data show the gap: in REIMAGINE 4, CagriSema, Novo's next-generation combination, matched tirzepatide 15 mg on weight loss in type 2 diabetes but fell short on blood sugar, with a 1.9-point HbA1c reduction against 2.2 points. Compounded and generic semaglutide add price pressure; Novo names Canada as a market where loss of exclusivity has already cut realised prices.
Where the moat is real. Novo is first with an oral GLP-1 for weight loss in the US and now has EU approval for both the Wegovy pill (up to 16.6% mean weight loss) and a higher 7.2 mg Wegovy dose (up to 20.7%). Peptide plants at this scale take years to build; Novo plans about DKK 55 billion of capital spending in 2026 alone.
Where it is thin. The pipeline has stumbled. Q2 carried DKK 6.3 billion of write-downs, including DKK 4.0 billion for the obesity drug monlunabant, and the ZEUS heart trial of ziltivekimab missed its main goal.
What is it worth?
We value Novo at $42 per ADR over the next 12 months (to October 2027), a probability-weighted blend of three scenarios. That is about 9% above today's price, which supports a Hold.
Our method. Novo is highly profitable, so we value it on earnings:
Forecast 2027 adjusted sales, then apply an adjusted operating margin.
Deduct about DKK 1 billion of net financial costs and tax at 22%, the middle of Novo's 21% to 23% range, and divide by about 4.38 billion shares after continued buybacks (4.41 billion today).
Apply the price-to-earnings multiple we expect in October 2027 and convert at 6.69 DKK per USD.
Weight the cases 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull. We tilt toward the bear case because the 2027 price cut is already announced.
Why these numbers. We estimate 2026 adjusted EPS at about DKK 22.7, in line with the middle of guidance and the DKK 12.81 earned in the first half. For 2027 our base case holds sales near DKK 295 billion: pill growth, international obesity and the 7.2 mg dose roughly offset the US list price cut and generic semaglutide abroad. A 42% margin matches Q2. That gives EPS of about DKK 22, and at 13 times, slightly above today's 11.7 times, about DKK 286 or $43 per ADR.
What the price implies. Each turn of the multiple is worth about $3.30 per ADR on our base-case earnings. At $38.64 the market is paying about 11.7 times our 2027 base EPS, which assumes Novo never returns to growth. That looks too gloomy, but the January price cut makes it hard to argue for much more yet.
What are the real risks?
Ranked by how much each would move our value per ADR.
The US price reset bites harder. List prices fall to $675 a month in January 2027. If volume does not offset lower net prices, our bear case of about DKK 270 billion in sales comes into play.
Tirzepatide keeps taking share. CagriSema did not beat tirzepatide on blood sugar in REIMAGINE 4, and its US approval decision is due in Q4 2026. A delay would leave Novo without a next-generation answer; a high-dose CagriSema trial reads out only in the first half of 2028.
Generic semaglutide spreads. Compound patents have expired in certain markets, and international obesity growth of 37% could slow quickly as copies arrive.
More pipeline write-downs. Q2 brought DKK 6.3 billion of impairments. More failures would leave little behind CagriSema.
Currency. Novo says a 5% move in the dollar shifts adjusted operating profit by about DKK 5 billion a year. ADR holders carry the krone-dollar rate on top.
What would change our mind?
Our Hold rests on one idea: volume growth roughly cancels price erosion in 2027. These signals would prove that wrong in either direction.
Signals that would move us to Sell
Obesity care growth below 5% at constant currency in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Wegovy pill weekly prescriptions flat or falling from the 265,000 reported in July.
A 2027 outlook that guides adjusted operating profit down more than 10%.
Signals that would move us to Buy
CagriSema approved in the US on time in Q4 2026 with a broad obesity label.
A 2027 outlook that guides adjusted sales flat or up despite the price cut.
The ADR falls below about $35 with no change in our earnings view.
Catalysts to watch
November 4, 2026: results for the first nine months of 2026.
Q4 2026: US regulatory decision on CagriSema; detailed REDEFINE 9 results at a scientific conference later in 2026.
Second half of 2026: EU rollout of the Wegovy 7.2 mg single-dose pen and more Wegovy pill launches outside the US.
January 1, 2027: lower US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic take effect.
Early 2027: full-year results and the first 2027 outlook (timing is a Haverhill estimate).
Sources and disclosures
Every company figure in this report comes from Novo Nordisk's own filings and releases, linked below. The analysis, model and price target are Haverhill Financial Research's own work.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This report is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Price targets are estimates of value, not guarantees. Haverhill ratings follow our published bands: Buy when our 12-month target is at least 15% above the price, Sell when it is at least 15% below, Hold in between. The author of this post does not hold a position in NVO. Data as of October 9, 2026.
