Haverhill Financial Research · Analysis · October 26, 2026
A rebound, not a headline
$$NOK ( ▼ 0.76% ) gained 5.65% to $8.60 Monday on heavy volume — nearly 79 million shares — without any new company announcement. The honest framing: this was a bounce. Nokia reported third-quarter results on October 22 that beat on the top line, and the stock fell roughly 15% anyway over the following sessions, swept up in the same October unwind that has hit everything labeled "AI infrastructure." Monday retraced a slice of that damage.
What helped the bounce along: analysts defending the name rather than abandoning it. Rosenblatt trimmed its price target to $14 from $15 but kept a Buy, calling the selloff an overreaction, and JPMorgan cut to $20.50 from $21 while staying Overweight. There is also persistent speculation that Nokia (alongside Ericsson) could supply equipment for SpaceX's rumored plan for roughly 80,000 terrestrial tower sites — worth flagging because it moves the stock, and worth labeling clearly: it is speculation, not an announced deal.
The Q4 guide implies the biggest sequential step-up of the year.
The quarter the market sold anyway
The October 22 report itself was solid: net sales of €5.15 billion against €5.07 billion expected, up 9% year over year, with comparable EPS of €0.09 in line and the comparable operating margin up 220 basis points. Management guided fourth-quarter net sales up 20–24% sequentially, said operating profit should land above the midpoint of the full-year outlook, reaffirmed that outlook, and declared the regular €0.03 quarterly dividend. By the standards of a company that spent a decade as a sleepy telecom-equipment stock, that is a strong print.
The selloff was about the multiple, not the quarter. Nokia has been one of 2026's more surprising AI-trade winners — at one point up roughly 140% on the year — on the strength of its pivot into AI networking: the AI-RAN platform pairing Nokia's software with Nvidia's Aerial RAN Computer (field trials with eight operators announced in September, with Nokia claiming more than 20% spectral-efficiency gains), data-center networking exposure, and planned SoftBank trials in Japan for 2027. The stock ran from under $6 to $17.45, then gave half of it back in October's AI-infrastructure unwind. Beating the quarter didn't matter; the complex was being sold.
What we're watching
The Q4 bar. A 20–24% sequential sales ramp is the steepest hurdle of the year. Clearing it validates the re-rating; missing it validates the October selloff.
Trials turning into contracts. AI-RAN is still pilots with no disclosed revenue. The gap between field trials and commercial commitments is where this story gets decided.
The SpaceX chatter. If the tower-supplier speculation becomes an announcement, it changes the model. Until then, treat it as rumor premium.
Where targets settle. Even the bulls are trimming — small cuts, maintained ratings. Watch whether the next round of revisions moves up or down after Q4.
Sources and disclosures
Figures come from Nokia's third-quarter 2026 report issued October 22, 2026, same-day price-action and analyst coverage via StocksToTrade and Timothy Sykes (October 26, 2026), and the September 16, 2026 AI-RAN trial announcement as reported by Yahoo Finance. The SpaceX supplier angle is unconfirmed market speculation. Report dates can change.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The author of this post does not hold positions in the companies named. Data as of October 26, 2026.
