Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $6 (12 months)
Joby Aviation is building an electric air taxi, and almost all of its value rests on two things it has not yet achieved: an FAA type certificate and paying passengers. It holds $2.26 billion of cash and investments, but used $202 million in Q2 alone, and its share count is up 29% since early 2025. At $5.44 the market values the air-taxi program at about $3.6 billion after net cash and Blade, close to what we think it is worth once more dilution is counted. Our 12-month price target of $6.00 is about 10% above the current price, with a bear case of $1.75, so we rate the shares Hold.
Company filings through the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of NYSE close Oct 9, 2026
Certification is in the last stage, not finished. Joby is in the fifth and final FAA stage and testing conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization. Dubai, where it holds a six-year exclusive, is the likely first market.
The cash is real, and so is the burn. Joby had $2.26 billion at June 30, guides to $385 million to $415 million of cash use in the second half, and owes about $450 million in cash for the Resonant Sciences deal.
Our view: the stock trades close to our probability-weighted value. A certificate and a working Dubai service would lift it sharply, but a slip into 2028 plus a raise at a lower price is a real path to about $2.
Investment thesis in brief
Our thesis: Joby can likely reach commercial service, but the stock already prices in a fair chance of that, and getting there will cost another round of dilution.
What we like. Joby has five aircraft flying, including its first FAA-conforming aircraft, and 12 more in production. It holds a six-year exclusive to run air taxis in Dubai. Toyota has invested $250 million and in June formed a joint venture with Joby to manufacture its aircraft.
What the market may be missing. Joby is no longer revenue-free. Blade, the helicopter booking business it bought in August 2025, brought in $36.2 million in Q2, and Joby raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $115 million to $125 million. That gives it customers and Manhattan heliports before its own aircraft fly a paying passenger.
What holds us back. The cash need keeps rising. Adjusted EBITDA (operating loss before stock pay and depreciation) was a loss of $197 million in Q2, 50% bigger than a year earlier, and the share count has grown 29% since early 2025. In August Joby also agreed to spend about $450 million in cash on a defense company.
How does the business actually make money?
For now, mostly through Blade. Of Q2 2026 revenue of $38.6 million, $36.2 million came from Blade, which sells helicopter and jet seats and charters, mainly around New York. Seats sold rose more than 50% year over year.
The real business is the air taxi. Joby designs and builds a piloted electric aircraft that takes off and lands vertically, and it plans to run the service itself instead of selling aircraft to airlines. Riders would book through Joby, Blade or Uber's app. Revenue will come from fares, so trips per aircraft per day will matter more than build cost.
Dubai first. Joby's 2024 agreement with Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) includes a roadmap for local approval by the UAE aviation regulator, which the 10-K says could come before FAA type certification. The main vertiport (a small airport for air taxis) at Dubai International is complete, and the second of four was nearly done in August. In February Joby said it expected first passengers in Dubai this year; the August letter keeps a 2026 first-passenger target without naming the city.
Defense is a third line. On August 11 Joby agreed to buy Resonant Sciences, a Dayton, Ohio maker of military radio-frequency systems, for about $500 million ($450 million cash, $50 million stock). Joby says Resonant has more than $100 million of trailing revenue, up about 40%, and is profitable. Closing is expected in the first half of 2027.
What do the numbers say?
Losses are growing as Joby builds aircraft and prepares for service. The adjusted EBITDA loss widened in each of the last five quarters, from $127 million in Q1 2025 to $197 million in Q2 2026. The Q2 net loss of $245 million was smaller than a year earlier only because of interest income and accounting gains on warrants; the loss from operations rose 55% to $261 million.
Exhibit 1: The adjusted EBITDA loss has widened for five straight quarters
Three things investors should know.
Cash use is stepping up. Joby used $202 million of cash and investments in Q2 and $365 million in the first half, excluding a $32 million Ohio building purchase. It guides to $385 million to $415 million for the second half, against $539 million for all of 2025.
The balance sheet was rebuilt with new shares and debt. In early 2026 Joby sold 52.9 million shares at $11.35 ($600 million gross), issued $690 million of 0.75% convertible notes due 2032 that convert at $14.19 a share, and collected $70 million when Delta exercised warrants for 7 million shares. Cash and short-term investments ended June at $2.26 billion, against $702 million of long-term debt.
Dilution is the cost of staying funded. Weighted average shares were 766.9 million in Q1 2025. On August 3, 2026, 989.1 million were outstanding, 29% more. Toyota bought 49.7 million at $5.03 in May 2025, near today's price.
Runway. On our numbers (Haverhill calculation), Joby ends 2026 with about $1.86 billion at the guidance midpoint. Take out $450 million for Resonant and our estimate of $1 billion of 2027 cash use, as Joby aims to double production to four aircraft a month, and cash falls to about $0.4 billion by end-2027, below the $690 million of convertible notes. We assume a new equity raise within 12 months in every scenario.
Competition and moat
Who it competes with. Archer Aviation is the closest US rival and also targets the UAE; Beta Technologies, Boeing-owned Wisk and China's EHang are building their own aircraft. Today the market is helicopters: Blade flew more than 90,000 passengers in 2025, and Joby's fares must win those riders first.
Where the moat is real. Type certification is slow and expensive. At July 31, 2026, Joby's certification plans (stage 3) were 83% complete on Joby's side and 77% accepted by the FAA, and stage 2 was 97% done on both sides. Partnerships with Uber, Delta and Virgin Atlantic, its exclusive UK airline partner, line up customers.
Where it is thin. Rivals can pass the same gate, and once several fly, price will matter more than being first. Joby also builds much of its aircraft in-house, which puts factory costs on its own balance sheet: it bought a 728,000 square foot Ohio plant in January 2026.
What is it worth?
We value Joby at $6.00 per share over the next 12 months (to October 2027), a probability-weighted blend of three scenarios. That is about 10% above today's price, inside our Hold band.
Our method. Joby has no air-taxi earnings to value, so we build value in October 2027 from three parts:
The air-taxi program: our estimate of 2031 air-taxi revenue, times a sales multiple, discounted four years at 20% a year for execution risk.
Blade and Resonant: about $250 million of combined annual revenue (our estimate), valued at 1.5 to 2.5 times sales.
Net cash in late 2027 after Resonant, burn and a new equity raise, divided by shares including the new ones.
Why these numbers. Our base case assumes a type certificate by late 2027, service in Dubai and early US flights through the federal eVTOL pilot program Joby began flying in Texas in September. We put 2031 air-taxi revenue at $1.5 billion at 8 times sales, about $5.8 billion after discounting, and a $750 million raise at $6. The bear case has certification slipping into 2028, $0.6 billion of 2031 revenue at 4 times sales and a raise at $3. The bull case has $3 billion at 10 times sales and a $1 billion raise at $10.
What the price implies. At $5.44 Joby's market value is about $5.4 billion. Take away $1.56 billion of net cash at June 30 and roughly $0.25 billion for Blade, and investors are paying about $3.6 billion for the air-taxi program. That is below our base-case $5.8 billion, but a year of burn and new shares eats most of the gap.
Why the bear case gets 40%. Testing and FAA verification is the largest block of work left, and new aircraft schedules often run long. A delay plus a raise at $3 cuts value by about two-thirds.
What are the real risks?
Certification slips. Joby is testing conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization, the FAA's formal flight test phase. A one-year slip costs roughly $1 billion of extra cash on our estimate.
Dilution at a low price. A $750 million raise at $3 would add 250 million shares, a quarter of today's count.
Dubai launches small. Two of four vertiports were complete or nearly so in August. A slow ramp would waste part of the six-year exclusive.
Manufacturing cost. First-half 2026 spending on property and equipment was $107 million, nearly four times a year earlier.
Acquisition drift. Blade and Resonant together cost about $590 million. They add revenue but pull cash and attention from the core program.
What would change our mind?
Our Hold rests on the stock fairly pricing a good chance of certification against near-certain dilution.
Signals that would move us to Buy
FAA pilots begin for-credit flight testing under Type Inspection Authorization, as disclosed by Joby.
First paying passengers in Dubai before mid-2027.
New money at a premium: strategic capital, such as more from Toyota, priced above $8 a share.
Signals that would move us to Sell
The first-passenger target moves into 2027 with no Dubai date.
Quarterly cash use above $250 million before any air-taxi revenue.
An equity raise below $4 a share.
Catalysts to watch
Q3 2026 results, early November. Date not yet announced (Q3 2025 came on November 5). Watch cash use against guidance.
First passengers, targeted for 2026. Joby said in February it expected to fly them in Dubai this year.
Resonant Sciences closing, expected in the first half of 2027.
Production of four aircraft a month, Joby's 2027 plan.
Sources and disclosures
Every company figure in this report comes from Joby Aviation's own filings and releases, linked below. The analysis, model and price target are Haverhill Financial Research's own work.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This report is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Price targets are estimates of value, not guarantees. Haverhill ratings follow our published bands: Buy when our 12-month target is at least 15% above the price, Sell when it is at least 15% below, Hold in between. The author of this post does not hold a position in JOBY. Data as of October 9, 2026.
