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Haverhill Financial Research · October 10, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $9 (12 months)
ImmunityBio's bladder cancer drug ANKTIVA is a real and growing product, but at $10.51 the stock already pays for it to become a multi-billion-dollar franchise. Our 12-month price target of $9 (through October 2027) sits about 14% below the current price, so we rate the shares Hold.
ImmunityBio Q2 2026 results release and Form 10-Q; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of Nasdaq close Oct 9, 2026
The launch is working. Product revenue nearly doubled in a year to $50.7 million in Q2 2026, its eighth straight quarter of growth.
The company still burns cash and owes a lot. It spent $141.9 million running the business in the first half, and $1.19 billion of note and royalty debt sits ahead of shareholders.
Our view: the price implies peak sales of about $3.3 billion, roughly 16 times today's run rate. We would buy closer to $7, or after FDA approvals that widen the label.
Investment thesis in brief
Our thesis: ANKTIVA is a genuine commercial success, but the share price assumes it wins several new labels and markets that are still years and FDA decisions away.
What we like. ANKTIVA works with BCG, the standard bladder cancer treatment, to restart the immune response in patients whose cancer came back after BCG alone. Sales have grown every quarter since its April 2024 approval. Each patient receives many doses over two to three years, so every new patient adds revenue for a long time.
What the market may be missing. Growth is slowing in percentage terms, from 60% quarter over quarter in Q2 2025 to 15% in Q2 2026. The current label covers a narrow group, and the bigger prizes, earlier-stage bladder cancer and lung cancer, depend on approvals the FDA has not yet granted.
What holds us back. ImmunityBio still loses about $66 million a quarter from operations. It carries a $774 million convertible note owed to entities of its founder and a $415 million royalty-backed liability, both ahead of shareholders. Its founder controls most of the voting power, so outside shareholders have little say.
How does the business actually make money?
ImmunityBio makes almost all its money from one drug, ANKTIVA, sold to urologists who treat early-stage bladder cancer that has stopped responding to BCG.
What it sells. ANKTIVA is an immune-boosting protein (an IL-15 agonist) placed directly into the bladder together with BCG. It is approved in the US for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ, and it is approved or authorized in five jurisdictions with access in 34 countries.
Who pays. Urology practices and hospitals buy the drug and bill insurers, with Medicare the largest payer given patients' age. The company booked $50.7 million of net product revenue in Q2 2026 against just $0.3 million of reported cost of sales.
Why they keep paying. Treatment is not one shot: patients get an induction course followed by maintenance doses for up to about three years, so each patient generates revenue across many quarters. ImmunityBio has also secured exclusive US rights to a second BCG strain from Japan BCG Laboratory, which protects supply during BCG shortages.
ImmunityBio quarterly and annual results, Q1 2025 to Q2 2026
Where growth would come from. The approved use, BCG-unresponsive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ, has been on the market since April 2024 and grows through deeper adoption. A papillary-only label is under FDA review, with a decision due January 6, 2027. For earlier-stage, BCG-naive patients, Phase 2B data is in hand and a filing is planned for 2026. In non-small cell lung cancer, ANKTIVA is authorized in the UAE, and US trials are ongoing.
What do the numbers say?
Sales are climbing fast, but costs are still more than twice revenue, and the company funds the gap with royalty deals, founder loans and new shares.
Q2 2026 against a year earlier. Net product revenue rose 92% to $50.7 million from $26.4 million. Research and development grew 10% to $60.8 million and selling, general and administrative costs 22% to $51.8 million, so the loss from operations narrowed to $61.7 million from $71.3 million. Cash used in operations fell to $66.5 million from $79.7 million. The GAAP net loss to common shareholders widened to $230.4 million from $92.6 million, while the company's own adjusted net loss narrowed to $81.0 million from $89.9 million.
The operating trend is improving. The operating loss shrank by about $10 million from a year earlier as revenue grew faster than costs. At the Q2 pace of revenue growth and spending, ImmunityBio would need revenue near $115 million a quarter, more than double today's, to cover its operating costs.
The headline loss is mostly accounting. GAAP net loss jumped to $230 million because the rising share price raised the fair value of the founder note and of warrants by $140.8 million. That does not use cash, but it does signal how much of the upside goes to those holders.
ImmunityBio Q2 2026 results release, balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026 and Dec 31, 2025
The balance sheet. Cash and securities were $357.4 million on June 30, about five quarters of operating burn. Total liabilities were $1.67 billion against $629 million of assets, leaving a shareholders' deficit of $1.05 billion. The revenue interest liability is repaid from a share of ANKTIVA sales, so a slice of future revenue is already spoken for.
Check the figures: Q2 2026 results release · Q3 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1
Competition, moat and management
ANKTIVA was early to a crowded field: several large drug makers now sell or are developing treatments for the same bladder cancer patients.
Who it competes with. Bladder removal surgery (radical cystectomy) is curative for many patients, but ANKTIVA lets them keep their bladder. Johnson & Johnson's TAR-200, a drug-releasing bladder device, brings a big-company sales force and strong response rates, making it a head-to-head choice for urologists. Gene therapies such as Ferring's Adstiladrin and CG Oncology's cretostimogene need few doses and are simple to give; ANKTIVA's pitch against them is its long durability data. Merck's Keytruda has been approved since 2020 but is given by IV with whole-body side effects, while ANKTIVA stays in the bladder.
Where the moat is real. ANKTIVA pairs with BCG rather than replacing it, so urologists add it to a routine they already use. Its durable response data and a secured second BCG supply are practical advantages, especially during BCG shortages.
Where it is thin. Johnson & Johnson and Ferring can outspend a small company on sales and medical education. Each new competitor narrows the share of BCG-unresponsive patients ANKTIVA can win, which is why the earlier-stage and lung labels matter so much.
Management and governance. Founder and executive chairman Patrick Soon-Shiong controls most of the voting power and, through his entities, holds the $774 million convertible note. That aligns him with the stock but also puts him ahead of other shareholders on the balance sheet. The relationship with the FDA has been bumpy: the agency refused to accept the first papillary filing in 2025 before accepting a later one for review.
What is it worth?
We value ImmunityBio at $9 per share over the next 12 months (to October 2027), a probability-weighted blend of three scenarios. That is about 14% below today's price, which supports a Hold.
| Assumption | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labels | |||
Bladder cancer labels Papillary Jan 2027, earlier-stage 2028 | Both slip | On schedule | On schedule |
Lung cancer | Overseas only | Overseas only | US label |
| Market | |||
Peak ANKTIVA sales Today's run rate: ~$0.2B | $1.0B | $2.5B | $5.0B |
Value / peak sales Typical for a growing drug | 3x | 4x | 4.5x |
| Balance sheet | |||
Note and royalty claims Rank ahead of shareholders | –$1.19B | –$1.19B | –$1.19B |
Cash, Oct 2027 | $0.2B | $0.2B | $0.2B |
Diluted shares Incl. founder note and warrants | ~1.15B | ~1.15B | ~1.15B |
| Value per share | $1.75 | $7.83 | $18.70 |
| Probability weight | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Probability-weighted value $9.03 | Price on Oct 9 $10.51 | Haverhill price target $9 –14% |
Our method. ImmunityBio loses money, so earnings multiples do not work. We value ANKTIVA on what it could sell at its peak:
Estimate peak worldwide ANKTIVA sales under each set of label outcomes.
Multiply by what investors typically pay for a high-margin drug still growing toward its peak (3 to 4.5 times peak sales).
Subtract the $1.19 billion of note and royalty claims that rank ahead of shareholders, and add the cash we expect in October 2027.
Divide by about 1.15 billion diluted shares, our estimate including the founder note's conversion and outstanding warrants.
Why these numbers. Our base case of $2.5 billion in peak sales assumes papillary approval in January 2027 and an earlier-stage bladder label in 2028, which would make ANKTIVA a standard option across most BCG-treated patients. That is more than ten times today's run rate. The bull case adds a US lung cancer label.
What the price implies. In our model, each $1 billion of peak sales is worth about $3.50 a share at 4x, and each turn of the multiple about $2.20 a share at our base-case $2.5 billion. At $10.51 and 4x, the market is paying for about $3.3 billion of peak sales, more than our base case and about 16 times today's annual run rate.
Today's valuation, for reference. At $10.51, the equity is worth about $11.1 billion, or about $12.0 billion including the note and royalty liabilities and net of cash. That is about 59 times ANKTIVA's current annual revenue run rate.
What are the real risks?
The biggest risk is that the new labels the price depends on arrive late or not at all. We rank the rest by how much they would move our value per share.
New labels delayed or denied. The papillary decision is due January 6, 2027, and the earlier-stage filing has not been made yet. Without both, peak sales look closer to our $1 billion bear case.
Rivals win the share. Johnson & Johnson's TAR-200 and Ferring's Adstiladrin target the same patients with far larger sales teams.
More dilution to fund losses. The company burned $141.9 million in the first half. At that pace cash lasts about five quarters, so more share sales or royalty deals are likely.
Founder claims and control. The $774 million note held by founder entities grows in value as the stock rises, and the founder's voting control limits outside influence.
FDA or manufacturing setback. The agency refused the first papillary filing in 2025. A further refusal or a plant inspection problem would delay growth.
BCG supply shortage. ANKTIVA is given with BCG, which has been in short supply before. The second BCG source lowers but does not remove this risk.
The lung program fails. It is not in our base case, so a failure costs little value but removes the bull case.
Risks 1 to 3 decide most of the gap between our cases, and the first resolves within three months.
What would change our mind?
Our Hold rests on one idea: ANKTIVA is a good product priced as if every expansion succeeds. These are the specific signals that would prove that wrong in either direction.
Signals that would move us to Buy
Both bladder labels on track. Papillary approved in January and the BCG-naive filing accepted without a refusal.
Sales keep compounding. Quarterly revenue above $75 million by Q2 2027 with sequential growth holding above 10%.
A cleaner balance sheet. The founder note converted or retired without new share sales.
The price falls below about $7 with nothing else changed.
Signals that would move us to Sell
A second FDA refusal or a delayed decision on either bladder label.
Growth stalls. Two quarters of sequential growth below 5% as competitors launch.
A large share sale at a discount to fund losses.
Catalysts to watch
The next big test is the FDA's January 6, 2027 decision on the papillary label.
ImmunityBio Q2 2026 results release; dates other than the FDA target are Haverhill estimates
Sources and disclosures
Every company figure in this report comes from ImmunityBio's own filings and releases, linked below. The analysis, model and price target are Haverhill Financial Research's own work.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This report is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Price targets are estimates of value, not guarantees. The author of this post does not hold a position in IBRX. Data as of October 9, 2026.
