Haverhill Financial Research · News · October 11, 2026
The short version
The Federal Reserve's next rate decision comes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 28, at the end of a two-day meeting, with the Chair's press conference at 2:30 p.m. At its last meeting on September 16, the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4.00%, in a 12–0 vote.
We do not forecast Fed decisions. What we can do is show which of the companies we follow earn more or less when rates move, so readers know where to look on the day.
What the Fed said in September
The September statement was short and direct. It said inflation "remains elevated," that economic activity was "expanding at a solid pace," and that "domestic spending has been resilient." On jobs, it said job gains "have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little." It explained the increase as supporting "a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal."
Read plainly, that is a Fed that sees a healthy economy and inflation that is not coming down fast enough. Whether it moves again in October will depend on the inflation and jobs data released since then; the statement and the press conference will say which way the committee is leaning.
Where rates show up in the names we cover
Brokers earn interest on idle cash and margin loans. Robinhood earned $389 million of net interest in the second quarter, about 30% of its revenue, and its margin book reached $21.5 billion in August. Higher rates raise what it earns on customer cash and on margin lending, though it also pays more on the cash it sweeps to customers. Schwab has the same exposure on a much larger balance sheet.
Card lenders price loans off short-term rates. Most card rates float with the prime rate, so a Fed increase passes through to borrowers within a billing cycle or two. That lifts interest income at Capital One and JPMorgan's card business. The cost is borne by borrowers, and a higher payment burden is one reason we track delinquencies closely.
Nu is mostly a Brazil and Mexico rate story. Nu's funding costs follow the Brazilian and Mexican central banks far more than the Fed. The Fed matters to Nu mainly through the dollar and through what US investors will pay for growth.
What we will be watching
The vote count, since September's was unanimous; any change in how the statement describes inflation; and whether the Chair describes September's increase as one step or the start of several. The Fed does not publish new economic projections at the October meeting; the next set comes in December.
Our take
September's move reset what higher-for-longer means for the companies we follow. For brokers and card lenders it supports interest income in the short run; for borrowers it raises the cost of carrying a balance. Both effects are in play, and October's decision will tell us whether they grow.
Sources and disclosures
Federal Reserve, Federal Open Market Committee statement of September 16, 2026, and published 2026 meeting calendar; Robinhood Markets second-quarter 2026 results and August 2026 operating data.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in the companies named. Data as of October 11, 2026.
