Haverhill Financial Research · News · Energy · October 24, 2026
What's happening
ExxonMobil and Chevron both report third-quarter results on Friday morning, October 30. Under normal circumstances these are the most predictable calls of earnings season. This quarter they arrive with December WTI at $103.58 after a 4.13% jump on Friday alone, Brent above $116 for the first time since April, and a market trying to figure out whether the latest escalation with Iran is a spike or a regime.
Two weeks of crude. The move came late, after the quarter being reported had already closed.
The timing quirk
The results themselves cover July through September, when prices spent much of the period well below current levels before climbing late. So the reported earnings will understate what the companies are earning right now, and everyone on the calls knows it. The interesting material is forward-looking: what $100-plus crude does to fourth-quarter buyback pacing, whether either company lets capital budgets creep, and what they say about refining margins with crude this expensive.
What we'd watch
Buybacks against the cycle. Both majors have spent two years telling investors that shareholder returns, not drilling, get the marginal dollar. A price spike caused by geopolitics rather than demand is the cleanest test of that promise.
Capex language. Any hint of budgets drifting upward “given the environment” would mark a real change in posture, and the market has punished it before.
The macro echo. Energy is the main force pushing headline inflation back up, by the Fed’s own account. Friday’s calls are, indirectly, testimony about how long that pressure lasts — supply responses, spare capacity, and whether customers are balking.
Services confirmation. Oilfield-services firms rallied this week as crude jumped. If the majors signal activity increases, that trade has more room; if they hold the line, it doesn’t.
| Company | Report | Backdrop |
|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | Q3 2026 results and call, Oct 30 | WTI up about 14% in two weeks |
| Chevron | Q3 2026 results and call, Oct 30 | Brent near six-month highs |
| Crude, Friday closeDecember WTI contract | $103.58 | +4.13% on the day |
Sources and disclosures
Report timing is from ExxonMobil’s investor calendar and Chevron’s posted schedule. Crude prices are Friday’s settlements; the Brent level is approximate. Nothing here estimates either company’s results.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in ExxonMobil, Chevron or the other companies named. Data as of October 24, 2026.
