Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $74 (12 months)
Circle issues USDC, a dollar-backed digital token, and earns interest on the roughly $73 billion of reserves behind it. That makes the stock a bet on two numbers: how much USDC is in circulation and where short-term US interest rates go. At $84.51 the company is valued at about 36 times its first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA annualized, net of cash, while a one-point fall in rates would cut about $377 million a year from what Circle keeps after paying partners (Haverhill calculation from Circle's own figures). Our 12-month price target of $74 (through October 2027) sits about 12% below the current price, so we rate the shares Hold.
Circle filings through the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of NYSE close Oct 9, 2026
Rates drive the income. Interest on reserves was 95% of Q2 2026 revenue. Circle's own table shows a one-point rate move changes annual reserve income by $737 million, about $360 million of which would have gone to partners.
Coinbase takes the largest cut. Circle paid Coinbase $324.6 million in Q2 2026, 79% of its distribution and transaction costs and close to half of reserve income.
Our view: USDC use is growing and federal rules now favor regulated issuers, but falling rates and partner payouts absorb much of that growth. The price already assumes a strong 2027.
