Haverhill Financial Research · News · October 14, 2026
The short version
ASML sold €11.7 billion of chipmaking equipment and services in the third quarter, a record and 55% more than a year ago. Net income more than doubled to €5.0 billion, or €12.93 a share. Sales landed near the top of the €11.0 to €12.0 billion range ASML gave in July, and gross margin of 57.5% beat its own forecast of 55% to 57%. The bigger news was in the outlook: ASML said the supply it currently plans for 2027 and 2028 won't fully meet what customers want.
The numbers
| Measure | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total net salesSystems about €8.4B, installed base €3.29B | €11.66B | +55% |
| Gross margin | 57.5% | 51.6% a year ago |
| Operating margin | 44.4% | 32.8% a year ago |
| Net income | €4.96B | +133% |
| Diluted earnings per share | €12.93 | €5.48 a year ago |
| Lithography systems sold113 new, 8 used | 121 | 72 a year ago |
| Q4 2026 sales guidanceGross margin about 57% | €14.2–15.2B | — |
| Full-year 2026 sales outlookGross margin about 56% | €44–45B | Was €43–45B |
Total net sales and fourth-quarter 2026 guidance. Source: ASML quarterly results releases.
Why the outlook matters
ASML makes the lithography machines that print circuits onto silicon, and it is the only company that makes the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools needed for the most advanced chips. When ASML says demand is outrunning its supply, it is telling you what the biggest chipmakers plan to spend.
The company already plans to raise capacity about 30% for 2027 and said it is looking at ways to add more for 2028. It also said some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030. ASML didn't give a 2027 sales forecast and will update its long-term view at a Capital Markets Day on June 10, 2027.
Cash and returns
ASML bought back about 2.8 million shares for roughly €4.1 billion in the quarter and paid an interim dividend of €1.88 a share. Another €1.88 interim dividend is payable on November 4. Cash and short-term investments rose to €12.7 billion from €7.6 billion at the end of June.
What we will be watching
Fourth-quarter delivery. €14.2 to €15.2 billion would be a big step up from €11.7 billion, and a lot has to ship on time.
Capacity plans. Any firm number for 2028 capacity would tell us how much ASML expects to sell.
Margins as volume rises. Gross margin is guided to about 57% next quarter, roughly where it landed this quarter.
Our take
Few companies can say demand for their product is spoken for two years out. ASML can, and this quarter it backed that up with record sales and a higher full-year floor. The risk is the one that always comes with equipment makers: chipmakers' spending plans can change quickly, and those changes tend to show up in equipment orders first.
Sources and disclosures
Every company figure comes from ASML's own materials: the third-quarter 2026 results release, investor presentation and the second-quarter 2026 release for prior guidance.
Disclosures. Haverhill Financial Research is a publisher of general financial commentary. This article is not personalized investment advice and does not consider any reader's financial situation; readers should do their own research. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Company figures and guidance can change. The author of this post does not hold positions in ASML or the other companies named. Data as of October 14, 2026.
