Haverhill Financial Research · October 12, 2026
Summary: Haverhill price target $320 (12 months)
AppLovin runs one of the most profitable ad businesses in the world: second-quarter revenue rose 53% to $1.92 billion and 84 cents of every revenue dollar became adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, excluding items such as stock pay). The share price has gone the other way. At $277.04 the stock trades at about 18 times our 2026 earnings estimate and about 15 times our 2027 estimate, a price that assumes growth fades fast and that the open lawsuits turn out badly. We think that discount is too wide for a company guiding to 46% to 48% growth next quarter, but the slowdown and the legal overhang are real, so we weight our bear case heavily. Our 12-month price target of $320 (through October 2027) sits about 16% above the current price, so we rate the shares Buy.
AppLovin filings through the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q; Haverhill Financial Research model; price as of Nasdaq close Oct 9, 2026
The engine still runs hot. Q2 2026 revenue grew 53% and net income from continuing operations 64%, driven by a 58% rise in net revenue per app install.
Growth is slowing from a very high level. Revenue rose only 4% from Q1 to Q2, and adjusted EBITDA landed just under the company's own guidance range.
Our view: at about 15 times our 2027 earnings the market prices in a sharp slowdown. We see more upside than downside, with legal and regulatory risk the main reason for caution.
